India’s soybean production in 2026-27 is forecast to decline 8% because of erratic monsoon rainfall and farmers shifting some acreage to cotton and corn, according to USDA.
The crop is forecast at 9.6 million metric tons, down from the previous estimate of 10.4 million metric tons. Yields are expected to average about 0.91 metric tons per hectare.
Soybean planted area is forecast at 10.5 million hectares, 6% below USDA’s previous estimate of 11.2 million hectares. Irregular rainfall during the planting period disrupted fieldwork, particularly in Maharashtra, one of India’s major soybean-producing states. Adoption of high-yielding, disease-resistant varieties could partially offset the reduction in planted area.
With a smaller crop expected, soybean crushing could decline to 8.7 million metric tons from the previous forecast of 9.3 million metric tons. USDA expects India to compensate for tighter domestic supplies and the resulting reduction in vegetable oil production by increasing soybean oil imports.
Domestic soybean demand remains strong. Food use is increasing because of growing demand for tofu, soy milk and soy flour, while feed use could rise 25% from the previous forecast. Poultry producers are increasing their use of soybean meal as more corn is diverted to ethanol production.
USDA forecasts India’s soybean imports at 500,000 metric tons in 2026-27, up from the previous estimate of 200,000 metric tons. Benin, Niger and Togo remain key suppliers of non-GM soybeans to India, although expanding processing capacity in those countries could reduce the volumes available for export.
Source: UkrAgroConsult, "Poor soybean harvest to push India to increase soybean oil imports — USDA"