A Transport & Environment (T&E) study says global biofuel consumption could rise 30% this year and 70% by 2030 as governments expand blending mandates in response to high oil prices, a shift the group warns could strain food supplies and push already elevated vegetable oil prices higher.
The analysis points to a renewed scramble for biofuel feedstocks following recent oil market disruptions, with vegetable oil prices reaching their highest level since the post-2022 spike. According to the study, nations including the United States, Indonesia and Thailand have accelerated biofuel blending targets, while major exporters such as Brazil and Indonesia have restricted shipments of key biofuel-related crops.
T&E warns the combined effect risks diverting agricultural output away from food markets at a time when several food commodities have risen for three consecutive months, echoing patterns seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The study also highlights mounting pressure on agricultural inputs. Biofuels currently consume about 5% of global fertilizer supplies to produce roughly 4% of transport fuels. T&E says expanding biofuel production would further strain fertilizer markets already affected by trade disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
Country-level data show uneven exposure. Indonesia allocates close to one-fifth of its total fertilizer use to biofuel production, while the United States allocates about one-tenth. The analysis adds that major biofuel-producing countries rely on Russia, China and the Middle East for more than half of their fertilizer imports, increasing vulnerability to supply shocks.
Land-use impacts are also flagged as a constraint. T&E estimates that if biofuels reached 20% of the global road fuel mix, matching targets pursued by countries such as Indonesia and Brazil, it would require an additional 130 million hectares of land, roughly equivalent to the size of South Africa. The report says such expansion would likely drive ecosystem loss and deforestation, with resulting emissions potentially exceeding those from the fossil fuels being displaced.
T&E warns that continued growth in biofuel production could deepen supply vulnerabilities across global agriculture and undermine efforts to stabilize food prices. It adds that shifting policy focus toward lower-carbon alternatives that do not compete directly with food crops would help reduce exposure to future market shocks.
Source: Transport & Enviornment, "Global biofuel demand set to grow by nearly 70% as food prices rise"