You may have seen in the news that the Trump administration has been announcing trade deals left and right. But are they consequential? Are they worth it? What do they mean for U.S. agriculture and grain handlers?

Like in baseball, singles and doubles win games while home runs energize the crowd. Large or small, in my view, trade deals have the potential to benefit U.S. agriculture. The key is understanding how.

The reason I believe these agreements matter is what I call the “domino effect.” In economics and policy, the domino theory suggests that one event can trigger a sequence of related events. In trade, agreements can become contagious. When one country secures improved access to the U.S. market, or grants improved access to U.S. products, others take notice. A fear of missing out sets in. That competitive pressure can encourage additional agreements, expanding opportunity beyond the original deal.

Several 2025 Agreements Could Spark a Trade Domino Effect for U.S. Agriculture

1. U.S.-EU Framework: Opening the Door
The U.S.-EU “Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade” framework, with negotiations ongoing. In mid-2025, the U.S. and EU reached a framework designed to reset tariff relationships. For agriculture, early wins could include reducing the EU ethanol tariff, currently €0.192 per liter for undenatured ethanol and €0.102 per liter for denatured ethanol.

The framework also opens the door to revisiting the EU policy restricting ethanol derived from “food or feed” crops, a limitation that has constrained U.S. exports. Progress here could support expanded U.S. ethanol, corn and sorghum flows into Europe.

2. U.S.-Philippines Agreement: Zeroing Out Tariffs
The 2025 U.S.-Philippines Reciprocal Trade Agreement. The Philippines has long been an ally but historically maintained tariffs on agricultural imports ranging from 10% to 30% or higher, depending on the product. Under the new agreement, many tariffs fall to 0%. That shift improves competitiveness for U.S. producers and creates clearer pathways for grains, feed ingredients and food products.

3. U.S.-Vietnam Trade Deal: A Growing Feed Market
Vietnam previously imposed tariffs in the mid-teens to high-30% range on various U.S. agricultural products; under the 2025 agreement, many fall close to zero.
Vietnam is especially compelling because its agricultural imports from the U.S. have nearly doubled over the past decade. While currently about a $4 billion market for U.S. agricultural exports, the growth trajectory is strong. With a rising population and rapidly expanding aquaculture sector, demand for feed ingredients such as corn, soybeans, soybean meal and DDGS presents significant long-term opportunities.

4. U.S.-Indonesia Agreement: Regional Ripple Effects
The U.S.-Indonesia Reciprocal Trade Agreement rounds out 2025. Indonesia has reportedly committed to purchasing about $4.5 billion in U.S. agricultural commodities, including wheat, soybeans and soybean meal. The agreement also lifts the prior 30% tariff on U.S. ethanol and outlines a path toward higher blending levels through 2030.

Beyond direct benefits, Indonesia illustrates the domino effect in action. Neighboring countries — Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Bangladesh — will closely watch how improved access affects Indonesia’s economy and competitiveness. No country wants to fall behind, particularly as the U.S. explores additional agreements in the region.

The Long Game
Time and geopolitics will ultimately determine the long-term impact of these agreements. But establishing them creates opportunities. Trade expansion rarely comes from a grand slam. More often, it is the steady accumulation of singles and doubles that ultimately wins the game.

Brent Boydston is the founder of Ag Center Solutions, advising clients on government policy, trade, and foreign market development. He previously served as chairman of the U.S. Grains Council, leading efforts to expand global markets for U.S. grains and ethanol. Before that, he was the Corn, Cereal Grains, and Digital Agriculture lead at Bayer Crop Science, managing key industry relationships. His experience also includes roles at the Colorado Farm Bureau and on Capitol Hill, where he worked on major agricultural and trade policies, including the 2008 Farm Bill and the Colombian Free Trade Agreement. Boydston holds degrees from Kansas State University and Colorado State University and comes from a multi-generational farming family in Kansas.