What a year it has been.

My prior articles focused on expansion opportunities for the U.S. grain trade. This time, I look back at what happened in 2025, to glean any lessons about what worked, what didn’t, and where new market openings have begun to take shape.

There’s no question that 2025 brought volatility for farmers and grain merchants, but there were meaningful bright spots. Corn led the way.

Corn

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service projects record U.S. corn exports in 2024-25 of approximately 71.7 MMT (2.8-2.9 billion bushels), surpassing the previous high due to ample supplies and strong price competitiveness. Demand was especially strong from Mexico, the European Union (EU), Egypt, Colombia, and Turkey.

Ethanol followed a similarly positive trajectory. The United States exported 1.9 billion gallons in 2024, and the current 2025 pace appears poised to exceed that. Key buyers included the United Kingdom (UK), EU, India, Canada, Colombia, and the Netherlands, showing that renewable fuel markets continue to diversify.

Soybeans

Soybeans, however, told a more complex story. Whole-bean exports softened as China pulled back amid political tension and shifting procurement strategies. Yet domestic soybean use surged as the renewable diesel boom drove record crush levels. That surge in crush created another bright spot: Soybean meal exports remained strong, particularly to Latin America and Southeast Asia, where feed demand continues to expand.

Wheat

Wheat also staged a meaningful comeback. After hitting a 52-year export low in 2023-24, U.S. wheat exports rebounded to a range of 826-835 million bushels in 2024-25, and additional improvement is expected in 2025-26. Traditional markets, such as Mexico, the Philippines, and Japan, anchored the recovery.

Sorghum

Sorghum, unfortunately, faced a more difficult year. With China sharply reducing purchases and Mexico buying less, U.S. sorghum exports declined substantially. While recent indications suggest that China is returning to the U.S. sorghum market, the crop faces an uphill climb to regain lost ground.

Positive Momentum

Despite the turbulence, 2025 ended with several promising signals for future trade. The most notable was the U.S.-China agreement in which China committed to purchase at least 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025 and a minimum of 25 MMT annually from 2026-28. If fulfilled, this could meaningfully restore soybean export volumes and support prices.

Even more significant is China’s commitment to suspend non-tariff trade barriers, which often are more disruptive than tariffs themselves.

Momentum is also building beyond China. Trade discussions and early frameworks with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian partners could unlock incremental demand for U.S. corn, soybeans, soybean meal, wheat, and sorghum. Southeast Asia remains one of the fastest-growing feed and food markets in the world, making long-term engagement essential.
Finally, I remain optimistic about ongoing U.S.-India trade talks. Both countries aim to expand bilateral trade from roughly $191 billion today to $500 billion by 2030.

The United States continues to push for greater agricultural, feed grain, and ethanol market access. India’s protected farm sector remains a challenge, but the potential upside is substantial.

Yes, 2025 brought challenges, but it also brought progress and new openings. With continued negotiations, market diversification, and a willingness to pursue emerging opportunities, the future holds real potential for U.S. farmers and the grain trade.

Brent Boydston is the founder of Ag Center Solutions, advising clients on government policy, trade, and foreign market development. He previously served as chairman of the U.S. Grains Council, leading efforts to expand global markets for U.S. grains and ethanol.

Before that, he was the Corn, Cereal Grains, and Digital Agriculture lead at Bayer Crop Science, managing key industry relationships. His experience also includes roles at the Colorado Farm Bureau and on Capitol Hill, where he worked on major agricultural and trade policies, including the 2008 Farm Bill and the Colombian Free Trade Agreement.

Boydston holds degrees from Kansas State University and Colorado State University and comes from a multi-generational farming family in Kansas.