Image courtesy of CoBank.
Brazilian farmers are rapidly seeding the 2025/26 soybean crop with nearly a quarter of the crop already planted. In its first forecast for the new Brazilian soybean crop, Conab estimated total production to reach a new record of 177.6 MMT, up 3.6% YoY and higher than USDA’s last forecast of 175.0 MMT.
Conab figures acreage will increase by 3.5% YoY to a record 121.2 million acres. While soybean acreage in Brazil has been expanding for decades, the pace of this year’s expansion is an acceleration from last year when harvested acreage rose 2.7%. We note this is part of a longer-term trend that extends from the previous trade war, which caused China, the world’s top soybean buyer, to shift purchases to Brazil. Brazil’s soybean acreage growth rate prior to the first U.S.-China trade war in 2018 was 3.7%. Since then, Brazil’s annual growth in soybean acreage has accelerated to 4.1%.
Conab forecasts Brazilian soybean exports for 2025/26 to rise 9.7% YoY to 112.11 MMT, which is in-line with USDA’s September estimate of 112.0 MMT. Brazil’s soybean crush capacity has also increased to meet Brazil’s rising feed demand and expanded biofuel mandate that requires a 15% blend of biodiesel in diesel. The pace of Brazil’s crush expansion is a modest 3.5% over the last 10 years versus a 6.8% growth rate for exports over the same period. Exports – mainly to China – are the key driver for acreage expansion.
Brazil’s exports of soymeal are also accelerating. While Brazil’s annual domestic usage for soymeal has climbed 3.1% in the last 10 years as hog and poultry feed demand rises, exports have accelerated by 3.8%. The faster export pace competes directly with U.S. meal exports at a time when U.S. crushers need export markets for expanded crush capacity.
